All Physicians
Includes physicians from all specialties. Excludes Adult Psychiatrists and Child & Adolescent Psychiatrists. Includes All Primary Care Physicians and Obstetrics & Gynecology Physicians.
2038 Supply (SQ)
948,400
2038 Demand (SQ)
1,002,850
2038 Gap
-54,450
2038 Elevated Need
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Supply & demand trend — US Total, Metro
HRSA scenarios · 10 lines
Each line is a separate HRSA projection. Blue = supply, red = demand. The two solid "Status Quo" lines are the baseline projections HRSA publishes; dashed lines are HRSA's own stress tests. Hover a line for the exact year value, or click a chip below to isolate it.
Supply scenarios
Demand scenarios
Methodology notes
- All values come directly from HRSA's Workforce_Projections_FullData.xlsx (FY2025 release).
- Values are rounded to the nearest 10 per HRSA disclosure convention.
- The chart shows every scenario HRSA publishes for this (profession, geography, rurality) tuple. Missing lines = scenario not applicable to this profession (e.g., Income Effect only applies to oral health; Unmet Need only to behavioral health).
- See Methodology & Sourcesfor HRSA's model assumptions and our extension plan.