All Physicians

US Total · Metro· 2023–2038. Dashed lines show HRSA's published scenarios; solid lines are our Layer 2 extended supply / demand. Add extension knobs in the Scenario Builder.

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2035 HRSA supply

931,070

2035 HRSA demand

983,500

2035 extended supply

931,070

2035 extended gap

-52,430

HRSA baseline vs our extensions

All HRSA scenarios (published)

Year	supplySupply — current trend	supplySupply −10% grads	supplySupply +10% grads	supplyRetire 2y earlier	supplyRetire 2y later	demand

2023	904,180	904,180	904,180	904,180	904,180	877,050	877,080	895,990	956,950	979,690
2024	902,610	898,900	906,190	897,050	909,290	887,320	887,350	906,190	968,160	991,470
2025	901,170	893,820	908,410	889,380	915,870	898,120	898,130	917,420	981,020	1,004,110
2026	900,900	890,220	911,690	887,570	918,090	908,220	908,290	928,010	992,740	1,016,100
2027	901,330	886,980	915,740	882,000	922,440	918,180	918,230	937,670	1,003,990	1,027,780
2028	903,900	886,000	921,630	877,410	926,270	927,260	927,290	947,080	1,014,890	1,038,690
2029	906,040	884,800	926,970	877,890	931,280	936,300	936,330	956,240	1,025,230	1,049,460
2030	908,710	884,450	932,820	879,010	937,350	945,190	945,210	965,090	1,035,800	1,060,210
2031	912,120	884,410	939,880	882,200	941,540	953,140	953,160	973,250	1,045,460	1,070,200
2032	916,270	885,190	947,550	884,730	946,430	961,180	961,220	981,650	1,055,190	1,079,880
2033	920,890	886,590	955,210	887,120	951,460	968,930	968,960	989,300	1,064,540	1,089,430
2034	926,150	888,670	963,920	892,190	957,500	976,200	976,230	997,050	1,073,540	1,098,680
2035	931,070	890,600	971,780	896,910	963,570	983,500	983,530	1,004,610	1,082,210	1,107,610
2036	936,830	893,220	980,750	902,880	969,000	989,950	990,000	1,011,090	1,090,360	1,115,610
2037	942,630	895,880	989,650	907,520	974,560	996,380	996,440	1,017,390	1,098,230	1,123,860
2038	948,400	898,480	998,090	912,200	980,110	1,002,850	1,002,890	1,024,000	1,105,820	1,131,880